Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Yves de Boer, executive secretary of the UN framework convention on climate change doesn’t expect getting a new global treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol at the Copenhagen climate change conference in December (7^th to 18^th).

You have to be an eternal optimist to believe that there will be a firm solution in December acceptable to the majority of the 192 nation conference delegates. But you have to give top marks to the UN representatives who appear to have the patience of Job.

In an interview, de Boer expressed the hope of broad agreement on four key issues:

1. How much are the developed countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases?
2. How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions?
3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed?
4. How is that money going to be managed?

De Boer is expecting at the end of the December talkfest, some sort of agreement, without dotting the eyes and crossing the ts, which is the following year would be formalised into a treaty to take the place of the Kyoto Protocol. He wants the US Administration to have sufficient support in the US Senate by that time for a binding treaty to be agreed. That means having 67 votes in the Senate majority, which is a tough ask.

Senator John Kerry, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee has made clear in talks with Chinese leaders that “America understands that we have an obligation to lead. But you need to understand that, politically speaking, America will not enter into a global treaty without a meaningful commitment from China to be part of the solution” (July 4 2009)

Well before the December meeting, the major countries need to flesh out how much money they are prepared to put on the table, and how many technologies they are prepared to commit for new joint ventures in carbon reduction projects. De Boer is suggesting US$10 billion, but that is too low for what developing countries would find acceptable.

On June 25 2009, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown suggested that the developed countries put US$100 billion as a price tag on climate adaptation. The developing countries would need to document which projects would be prioritised when funds become available.

Brown suggested that rich countries be prepared to hand over $100 billion each year to help the developing world cope with the effects on global warming in mitigation and adaptation to global warming. While the European Union collectively will reach a decision on climate action dollars in October, Brown is suggesting a time staggered approach.

Under the plan, funding would begin in 2013 and rise to $100 billion a year by 2020. “The money would be raised from private and public sources, such as levies on international carbon trading schemes.

“Developing countries would be able to apply for funds for specific projects. I would urge the leading developing countries to bring forward ambitious and concrete propositions…that could be financed by these sources,” said Brown.

At the July meeting of the 17 major economies in L’Aquila, Italy, the leader of WWF Global Climate Initiative, Kim Carstensen said $100 billion isn’t enough. “We need more funds- up to $160 billion by 2017.”

No concrete dollar numbers were put up by the major economies, with the result that the financial commitment is to be thrashed out at a G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh to be held in September.