Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block 

The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) is a fierce opponent of the Australian Government’s carbon reduction scheme.

 MCA commissioned Dr Brian Fisher, a one time director of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) to prepare a report estimating the employment effects in the mining industry from the government’s carbon pollution reduction effects out to 2030, both on a national, state and regional basis.

Fisher’s report from his firm Concept Economics dated May 21 2009 is available on the web, with quick facilities for downloading. The report says that direct and indirect employment in Australian mining and related industries total an estimated 200,000 workers. This is made up of 142,000 directly employed in mining, together with 20,000 in the smelting and refining of minerals, and the indirect employment effects of the many communities dependent on mining commodities.

There is no question that these industries contribute a dominant share of Australian exports, with coal the largest export earner. Equally, the regional impacts given the geographical diversity of mining and related activities in north and central Queensland, most of Western Australia and the Hunter Valley and Illawarra regions of New South Wales are extremely large in terms of contribution to gross state product.

The Australian Government’s proposed 5 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 from 2000 levels is estimated on an Australian wide basis to displace 23,510 mining and allied workers by 2020, and 66,400 by 2030.

What I don’t like about an emotional study of this sort, designed to create hysterical levels of objection to an even modest reduction in carbon levels, is that there is no attempt to estimate the impact of a successful transition to a carbon capture and storage future, prolonging the carbon based regional economies for many years to come.

Equally, there is no allowance for a rapid resumption of medium term growth in demand for commodities, which is less than five years away.

To take just one example of why quick econometric projections on future employment usually turns out to be wide of the mark, the Beijing based consultancy Dragonomics, which publishes the China Economic Quarterly, with its own blog Dragonbeat in the Financial Times has an upbeat view on China and the medium term outlook for commodities..

Tom Miller, the managing editor of the China Economic Quarterly says- “somewhere between 2010 and 2013- China will again emerge as the key driver of global demand.” Financial Times (April 3 2009). Miller quotes a recent study by McKinsey Global Institute, which is forecasting that 100 new cities with populations of 500,000 to 1.5 million will mushroom around the country.

“By 2025, current trends suggest that six new cities- Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Chongqing and Chengdu- will join Beijing and Shanghai with real urban populations exceeding 10 million. As China’s growth and urbanisation continues for another couple of decades, Chinese demand for commodities will rise substantially, especially hard commodities for building houses and roads.”  

 Nor is there any acknowledgement, that the regional impact of employment effects of renewable energy projects in the mining communities could offset to some extent any direct or indirect loss of employment opportunities in mining communities.

The Climate Institute is claiming that renewable energy projects is likely to create 26,200 new jobs mostly in Australian regional centres. This ‘tit for tat’ report has about as much accuracy as the report from the Minerals Council. Tit for tat of equivalent retaliation, a strategy in game theory has Milton Hooke of the Minerals Council in one corner and John Connor of the Climate Institute in the other corner. Both are seasoned performers and enjoy the contest.

In reality, there is a bit of truth in the reports from both groups of lobbyists.

by Ray Block

The quotation is from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s Ancient Mariner. It echoes the dilemma facing the planet today, where devastating droughts and floods are already leading to water shortages world wide.

The world population is expected to rise 2.5 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050, the increase being equivalent to the total population in 1950. The whole of the increase will be in the developing countries to reach 7.9 billion in 41 years, which for some countries will be standing room only. By that time, 3 billion people will be severely short of water.  

International Alert in a 2007 report A Climate of Conflict identified 46 countries home to 2.7 billion people, where climate change and water-related crises create a high risk of violent conflict. A further 56 countries, representing another 1.2 billion, are at high risk of political instability.

The danger of water shortage is not confined to the poorer countries. In the US, California’s governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said a few days ago that the state “is headed toward one of the worst water crises in its history.” The state’s Department of   Works says that that California seems on track for its worst drought since the early 1990s.

Catherine Brahic (New Scientist February 1 2009) says that the three year drought may be a consequence of the expanding tropics, which are gradually growing as greenhouse gases warm the planet. “”Climate scientists have documented a slow progression of low latitude weather systems towards the poles, and matched by rising temperatures in many temperature regions.

Thomas Reichler of the University of Utah says the subtropics is more feared than widening of the tropical zone itself. While the tropical belt is hot and humid,the subtropics suffer from severe drought.  According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, 36 states will face water shortages by 2013, with the bulk of the population projected for the driest areas.

The intensity of the drought on the US west coast is mirrored in Australia, which has been severely affected by the worst drought in more than 100 years across the south eastern areas, hitting hard the food bowl of the Murray Darling river system.

The Pacific Institute in releasing the latest edition of the World’s Water 2008-2009, has an alarming chapter on China’s intense water problems. “China’s water resources are overallocated, inefficiently used, and grossly polluted by human and industrial waste, to the point that vast stretches of rivers are dead and dying, lakes are cesspools of waste, ground water aquifers are over-pumped and unsustainably consumed, and direct adverse impacts on both human and ecosystem health are widespread and growing.

Of the 20 most seriously polluted cities in tthe world,16 are in China. Three hundred million people lack access to safe drinking water. Significant outbreaks of illness, including cancers, are being reported in heavily polluted regions, driving up health care costs and growing public concern. There is growing internal dissent and conflict over both water allocation and water quality, raising new political pressres on the central and provincial governments to come to grips with water problems.”

by Ray Block

Over a number of years, investment bankers in America and England created toxic securities, almost as deadly as weapons of mass destruction, and the consequences are now tipping the world economy into a severe and prolonged recession.

The immediate countries engulfed are United States, United Kingdom and European Union. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 10 major US metropolitan areas fell by a record 17.5 per cent in July 2008 from a year ago level, and there are more price falls to come. Home prices are also tumbling in the UK, Spain and Ireland.  

The secondary consequences involve a slow down in China and India, as European and American customers reduce demand for imported goods. In turn, metal commodity prices are falling steadily with commodity suppliers Russia, Brazil, Canada, Australia, and South Africa being affected as well. Agricultural prices fell again in August, with the FAO food price index falling nearly 6 per cent, and if this trend is repeated in September, the whole world will feel the ill winds of recession.

The US Congress will ultimately pass a taxpayer bailout to banks of US$ 700 billion. With $300 billion already outlaid by the US government on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group, and write offs by banks already of $500 billion, these sizeable funds are still not enough to stabilise the world economy.

International trade is slowing. The Baltic Dry index, which measures dry bulk shipping costs plunged by nearly a quarter last week, 10per cent on September 30 alone. The index has become very volatile, twice doubling and then falling back within 15 months. The slide also reflects a weakening in Chinese raw material demand.

Chinese prices for key steel products have been falling 15 per cent to 20 per cent in the last two months. Indian steel prices are similarly falling. Some base metal prices have fallen by more than 50 per cent. The Chinese and Indian economies slowed in the June quarter, and this trend of further slowing is expected in coming months.

Indeed, the single most dramatic indicator of slowdown in Asia has been China’s reversal of its previous monetary policy. Instead of the Chinese central bank constantly raising interest rates to curb excess demand and inflation, September 2008 has seen for the first time in six years interest rates falling, and banks have been allowed to set aside smaller reserves, as weakening export demand slows the economy.                                                                                                                                                                                                 

The consequences of the world downturn is that countries will slow their efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG). We will all be the losers for that. The inevitable result is that the pace of cutting GHG emissions will be substantially lower than what scientific advisers are constantly urging, and almost pleading.

The chances of a successful world agreement on cutting emissions at the Copenhagen meeting in November 2009 are not very high.

But not all hope is lost. There is a way out. If other countries were to follow the lead of the US in introducing investment tax credits on installation of renewable energy solutions, there is no need to sit idly by as greenhouse gases gets steadily worse.

Investment tax credits, available to homeowners and businesses that invest in solar power equipment, and the production tax credits based on kilowatt hours of energy produced by wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and other renewables have been the catalyst for the US to grow its renewable share of electricity consumed.

The result has seen dramatic increases in installation of wind power and solar energy technology in the US over the last two years, thanks largely to the investment tax credits. But because the tax credits require yearly renewal in Congress, there is no consistency in US growth of renewables.

The US Congress allowed the credits expire in 2000, 2002 and 2004. In those three years, wind capacity installation dropped 93 per cent, 73 per cent and 77 per cent respectively from the previous year.

A consulting company advising on renewable energy technology estimated that US investments in wind and solar power in 2009 would amount to $26.6 billion with tax credits, but fall to $7 billion without them. These credits are expected to total $334 million, according to congressional estimates.

by  Ray Block

While commodity prices remain in long term uptrend, the short term cyclical outlook is dramatically down. The speculators are at it again, driving prices down with the same intensity as they were doing, when commodity prices were being pushed up to extreme levels earlier in the year.

The fast money people, including hedge funds are testing out how far down they can go in pushing oil prices lower, given that no one seems to know the floor price. The price charts are in breakdown mode.

But accompanying the speculators, there is an economic downturn gathering pace in an increasing number of countries, as they head into recessionary conditions. The credit crisis engulfing international banks now 13 months old continues to grind on showing no sign of ending over the next 18 months.

The economic blog, RGE Monitor (August 3 2008) said that a group of countries is “navigating towards (or through) recession. The list included the US, Canada, Spain, Ireland, Italy, UK, the small Baltic countries and New Zealand. And moving closer to zero growth are the two heavyweights of the European Union – Germany and France, and Japan is in the same boat.

The only good news is that the commodity price falls should help to puncture the high level of international inflation.

Motor gasoline demand has been in decline since the last quarter 2007, and with consumption still down in the second half of 2008, even demand in 2009 is expected to further shrink. In August 2008, despite a slide in oil prices, US auto sales tanked 15.5 per cent from a year ago, with demand for SUVs and truck pickups are still in the doldrums.

Crude oil prices have tumbled to $108 a barrel since it peaked six weeks ago. The International Energy Agency on August 11 cut its estimate of US oil demand by 6 per cent. With speculators eyeing $100 a barrel as a likely level, it is a long way down from July 2008’s high of $147.27. Oil consumption is contracting not only in the US, but in Europe as well, with sharp falls in Italy and Spain.

Iran is now demanding that the OPEC cartel should shore up prices by cutting production levels, and Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, which had increased its crude production to more than 9.5 million barrels a day in July may well agree to a cut.

The oil price slide triggered off a broader fall in commodity prices such as copper, corn and soybeans, with the Reuters-Jefferies CRB raw materials index, about 18 per cent down from July’s peak. In another sign of commodities in downturn, the Baltic Dry Index which measures the cost of shipping dry bulk commodities fell almost 5 per cent, the lowest level since February 2008.

Of the 21 commodities tracked by Deutsche Bank, only four – live cattle, lumber, sugar and pork bellies showed positive returns so far in the second half of this year. In three of the commodities- live cattle, lumber and sugar, the increase was 10 per cent or less. But in pork bellies, the rise has been quite dramatic, increasing by 30 per cent over the two months to August 2008.

Steel is the latest commodity to show weakness in demand and prices. Arcelor Mittal, the world’s largest steel group announced that it would cut prices in South Africa, as much as 8 per cent across all its steel products, because of lower international prices. The cut will start on October 1 2008. The lower steel outlook has been echoed in China, which collectively accounts for more than 35 per cent of world steel production.

Steel consumption in China, which grew by 16 per cent in the June half 2008 is forecast to increase by only half this level in the December half. Paul Waldmeir in Shanghai for Financial Times (September 3 2008) says that major Chinese industries consuming steel- such as construction, household appliances and car production are all showing signs of weakness. Steel prices have been sliding since July.

In Eastern Europe, the price for hot-rolled steel has fallen about 30 per cent in less than two months. In the US, the Wall Street Journal reported (September 3 2008) that prices of domestic hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are off about 8 per cent. The three month price of nickel has fallen 23 per cent on the London Metal Exchange (LME), and along with the fall in demand for stainless steel, the substantial rise in stockpiles augurs unfavourably for further price weakness.

Aluminium is at a seven month low on the LME. In food commodities, wheat, soybeans and corn are well off their 2008 highs, with soybeans and corn more than 20 per cent lower than their 2008 highs.

Accompanying the commodity price falls, the commodity driven dollar currencies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand, along with the South African rand are all in retreat, and even the emerging market Asian currencies are also trending down.