Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Despite the global recession, solar PV (photovoltaics) continued to grow in calendar 2009, increasing by an estimated 5 per cent. However, it largely took to the fourth quarter before the market became revitalised.

Global market estimates from forecaster Solarbuzz, is for an expected 6.37 GW PV in calendar 2009, with European demand accounting for 71 per cent of the market. Germany’s third quarter (July-September) demand of 980 MW was eclipsed by a more robust 1680 MW fourth quarter.

Germany regained the world lead from Spain, after losing the top spot in.2008, with an estimated 2.5 GW installed. After a record Spanish demand of 2.5 GW in 2008, with the inducement of an exceptional level of feed- in-tariff (FIT), the government capped demand for 2009 at 500 MW and reduced the FIT subsidy. As a result, solar companies downsized their staff from 40,000 to 4,000. With a reduced FIT, demand in 2009 fell to only 150 MW.

The Italian government has set a goal of 3 GW PV by 2016, with 2009 demand expected at 400MW. France wants to achieve PV demand of 1GW a year by 2013, with an installed capacity of 5.4 GW by 2020.

US PV demand for calendar 2009 is estimated by Solarbuzz at 556 MW up from 290 MW in 2008. Enterprise Florida and Greentechmedia, in a study of emerging trends in the US market point to the beginnings of a cost based feed-in-tariff, with California supporting a FIT of up to 750 MW total demand. A major growth factor is the enthusiasm for power utility scale PV systems. 16 states currently have a renewable portfolio standard, with specific provisions for support to solar power.

In the next four years, the utility-scale market will begin to rise markedly, outdistancing the residential market. Enterprise Florida and Greentechmedia expect with falling PV system prices to see the “gradual achievement of price convergence between utility-scale PV and wholesale peak electricity prices.” The study suggests that price convergence could occur as early as this year, initially in the No1 PV market in California.

The most remarkable solar PV company so far is First Solar of Tempe, Arizona, with its outstanding success in thin fim cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, challenging the traditional dominance of crystalline silicon. CdTe modules don’t have the energy efficiency of silicon, but First Solar makes up for that with the ability to decrease radically the cost of solar cells per unit of generated power.

In 2009, First Solar was able to reduce the cost of solar cells to 85 cents (US) per watt, which had been never before achievable.  2009 module production was 1.1GW, almost catching up to industry leaders Q-cells of Germany and Sharp of Japan.

iSuppli forecasts that the thin-film PV module share of the overall market will rise from the 2008 global level of 14.2 per cent to an impressive 34.5 per cent by 2013. First Solar, with nearly 28 per cent of the global market in 2009 is well placed to benefit from this expected growth.

Japan, which had an installed PV capacity of 2.1 GW in 2009 aims to have 28 GW of installed PV by 2020. The government introduced a FIT taking effect on November 1 2009, requiring power utilities to purchase PV generated electricity at Y48/kWh for 10 years.