Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

When Arthur J Goldman, the founder of Luz abandoned the parabolic trough for his new start up BrightSource Energy, the dominant feature is a 143-metre central power tower.

On top of the tower, 1600 double tracking heliostats (small mirrors) reflect sunlight on to a boiler to produce high temperature steam.

The company has contracts with the two largest utilities in California- PGE and SCE to deliver 2.6 GW of solar power from 2013 onward. It will start with a 100 MW unit at Ivanpah, with construction commencing in 2010. A new company Ivanpah Solar, bringing in the large specialist construction group Bechtel, as an equity partner will later be expanded to 440 MW, with the addition of three further solar plants.

BrightSource also intends to install 900 MW of solar power at Coyote Springs, Nevada, largely to fulfil contract agreements with the Californian utilities. Other expansion plans are for solar plants in Arizona and New Mexico.

With a much smaller area of land and less water usage, the power tower has cost advantages over the solar trough, and the energy efficiency can be as high as 34 per cent. But there is one major difficulty still to be overcome. The Andasol plants in Spain are fitted with thermal storage capability of 7.5 hours, which allows the operators of the power grid to rely on the solar plant to deliver power for at least two hours, irrespective of the cloud cover. BrightSource doesn’t have thermal storage capability at this stage.

Another company using the power tower concept is eSolar. Little more than two years old, founder Bill Gross, an entrepreneur in computer software has moved very quickly into CSP, with a power tower concept and thousands of small flat mirrors similar to BrightSource. A man in a hurry, Gross’ company already opened a demonstration plant in August 2009 with capacity of 5 MW in Lancaster, CA to prove that the technology produces cost effective electricity, and can be replicated.

The main cost of the plant is the steel and the actuator for controlling the small flat modular mirrors. The steel holds the mirror in shape without distorting, to stay in a perfect parabola. “Because we use a one square meter mirror, we use half the steel of a solar trough,” says Gross.

The eSolar system has computer controlled 24,000 individual mirrors, all pointing in slightly different directions to project on one spot, with each mirror having its own microprocessor to control movement. Software is made up of 50 people in a company of 135 staff. Bill Gross estimates that the build and install cost of a modular 46 MW plant will be between $2.50 and $3 per watt.

eSollar has inked in contracts for 245 MW with SCE in Southern California and one of 92 MW with El Paso Electric in New Mexico. This is quite modest compared to the latest step announced in January 20l0.

A deal with China Shandong Penglai Electric, brings eSolar into the big time. Involved is an almost certain technology transfer involving 2 GW of solar power in a $5 billion deal. The project will start off with 92 MW, with development starting in 2010.The magnitude of the whole contract is exceptional, given that the eSolar basic plant design is for 46 MW of generating capacity.

The Irish renewable energy investment company, NTR, which bought control of SES Systems and its sister company Tessera Solar in 2008 for $100 million has moved forward quickly, with an initial 1.5 MW plant in Peoria Arizona, and a 27 MW plant in San Antonio Texas, involving a 20 year power purchase agreement with CPS Energy.

SES, formerly Stirling Energy Systems, with a then struggling capital base had saddled itself in 2005 with big Californian contracts. These comprise the 900 MW Imperial Valley 1 and 2, and the 850 MW Calico 1 and 2 purchase power agreement in Southern California, with San Diego Gas & Electric and SCE. There have been difficulties with environmental lobby groups holding up regulatory approvals.

It is ironic that the SES technology is the most economic of all CSP systems in the amount of land utilised and in water usage. Yet the Calico project in the Mojave Desert, if it were to gain regulatory approval would still require 34,000 solar dishes, each 40ft high and 38ft wide on 8,230 acres.

The SES CSP system doesn’t have a parabolic trough, or a power tower. But the SunCatcher solar power collection dishes, which has been re-designed with the research of Sandia National Labs’ National Solar Test Facility is now ready for commercial production. Although, there is no capability for thermal storage, it may become a winner in some markets.

The modular SunCatcher uses precision mirrors attached to a parabolic dish to focus the sun’s rays onto a receiver, which transmits the heat to a Stirling engine. The engine is a sealed system filled with hydrogen. As the gas heats and cools, its pressure rises and falls. The change in pressure drives the piston inside the engine, producing mechanical power, which in turn drives a generator to make electricity.

The new SunCatcher is much lighter than the original model, it is round instead of rectangular to allow for more efficient use of steel, has improved optics, there are 60 per cent fewer engine parts, and fewer mirrors- 40 instead of 80. Automobile manufacturing techniques have been used. To reduce costs, the reflective mirrors are formed into a parabolic shape using stamped sheet metal.

Sandia National Labs test measurement of solar to grid conversion efficiency of the SES system made in February 2008 was 31.25 per cent.

Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Climate Change, Economies, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies

 by Ray Block

The accepted view is that wind energy electricity per kWh is almost competitive with natural gas and coal, but solar energy is much more expensive. In turn, concentrating solar (CSP) in utility scale plants, is cheaper than solar PV

However, there is a concerted effort among CSP producers to bring down costs to more competitive levels. The then largest CSP developer in the world, the Israeli company Luz International, founded in 1980 designed and constructed for Southern California Edison (SCE), nine parabolic trough solar systems in the Mojave Desert.  The technology  consists of rows of curved mirrors focussing heat onto a tube filled with oil, which boils water to make steam for the turbine.

 Known as SEGS 1-9, California for the first time had concentrating solar generating capacity of 349 MW, the two final units each of 80 MW being installed in 1990. Although Luz planned more CSP plants, the company was bankrupted mainly because of dwindling levels of subsidies for this pioneering company.

 Considerable improvements in design enabled Luz to bring down electricity costs per kilowatt hour (kWh). The first two plants produced electricity at an uneconomic 24cents per kWh. The next five installed plants had reduced electricity costs to 12c per kWh, and the final two plants achieved an electricity cost down to 8c per kWh.

 The company aimed to enable new plants to generate electricity at 6c per kWh, which based on the first two plants would have allowed for a 75 per cent cost reduction. Each of the SEGS plants were configured as hybrids to use natural gas on cloudy days, or after dark.

 A great deal of ground has been made up in the last two years. At December 2009, there were 25 CSP projects under development in the US. These involved contracts for 6.2 GW, made up of 21 in California, two in Nevada, and one each in Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, and Hawaii.                           

 Today, parabolic trough systems are the most numerous in the CSP market, with the dominant suppliers Solar Millennium of Germany and Abengoa and Acciona of Spain. Solar Millennium’s three 50 MW plants in Andalusia, Spain (the third plant to be completed in 2011) is to be followed by a fourth 50 MW plant in the Spanish Extremadura region.

According to the suppliers, energy efficiency for each of the identical plants peaks at 28 per cent, with an average efficiency of 15 per cent. Each of the plants requires a ground area, equal to 70 soccer playing fields (195 hectares), and uses an immense amount of ground water. Given that CSP is most suitable in arid and desert conditions with large sun cover, the excessive water usage often leads to hostility among local landowners.

 Each of the Andasol plants has 209,664 large curved mirrors, each mirror being anchored at four points to a steel structure, with a laser scan checking each mirror’s curve at 1,000 measuring point per mirror. The parabolic trough system is about twice as expensive as other technology platforms on the market.

 Solar Millennium’s latest development is a contract of up to 726 MW with SCE in Southern California, with at least two solar trough plants each of 242 MW beginning construction in 2010. A third plant is also contemplated in the future.

 A likely solution to the cost of the traditional parabolic trough design comes from SkyFuel of New Mexico. With the collaboration of the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL),. Skyfuel is demonstrating its SkyTrough, where the traditional glass mirrors are replaced with lightweight glass-free highly reflective polymer mirror film reflectors. This is to be tested out at the site of Luz’s original SEGS 1 and 11 near Daggett, Southern California. Sunray Energy, a division of Cogentrix Energy  operates the SEGS plants supplying 43 MW of solar power to SCE. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Posted under Economies, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies

by Ray Block

Being a movie actor must have something about it to qualify as a politician. Ronald Reagan, the one time movie actor changed overnight from liberal to conservative, and having become the darling of the Right, became the successful 40th President of the US.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, another movie actor and one time bodybuilder, who enjoyed his roles as a super hero, but whose most endearing movie was Kindergarten Kid, retires from his two terms as governor of California in January 2011. He can’t stand again, a requirement of the state constitution, as amended in 1990. This could give concern that a future governor might want to slow down the march to renewable energy. For example, is front running Republican, Meg Whitman, the highly successful ex-CEO of eBay as committed to renewable energy as the Terminator?

California’s fiscal position is dysfunctional with a large structural debt, unemployment is at a record 12.5 per cent, and massive savings have to be made in budget programs. Schwarzenegger has been a crusader of renewable energy and the low-carbon fuel standard in the seven western states. With these states and four western Canadian provinces, he has been the leader in the Western Climate Initiative to set up a cap and trade scheme for the region.

The state has been a long time pioneer in tighter environmental laws, establishing its own air pollution standards as early as 1966. Under Schwarzenegger in 2006, landmark legislation AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act gave the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the lead agency role in implementing the act. The law requires that by 2020, the state’s greenhouse gas emissions be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020. This is about a 25 per cent reduction under “business as usual” conditions, and to  a 80 per cent reduction by 2050.

At the same time, California’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS), which the Governor signed into law in September 2006 imposed mandatory obligations on the state’s three major electricity suppliers to produce at least 20 per cent of their electricity using renewable sources by 2010.

The Terminator went even further in September 2009 by Executive Order directing CARB to adopt regulations increasing the state’s RPS to 33 per cent by 2020. The executive order allows renewable energy imported from the other western states through the western interconnection to count towards the 33 per cent goal.

The RPS will apply to all load serving entities, including investor owned utilities, publicly owned utilities, direct access providers and community choice aggregators. The ARB is directed to adopt these regulations by July 31 2010. Even with the allowance to include other western states’ renewable energy sources, this is an exceptional target for the largest state in the nation.

With the shock loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat to a Republican and the tide turning strongly back to the conservatives, liberal Republicans like Arnold Schwarzenegger are a dying breed. There are already calls for AB 32 to be repealed. An economic analysis prepared for the California Small Business Roundtable in June 2009 concluded that small business, the dominant employment force in the state would be “likely to result in loss of more than $182.6 billion to gross state output.”

In the meantime, there is a record level of new development proposals in renewable energy projects in the state, which will make 2010 an extremely interesting year. I will write on these projects shortly.

Posted under Climate Change, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies

by Ray Block

Renewable energy- wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydropower are rarely located near major population and large manufacturing centres. In the case of wind energy, the resource is variable, it may be strongest in night time, when electricity usage is lower. For solar,, solar power can be used at night, by the expedience of storing energy during the day in a molten salt.

It is also usually the case that renewable resources are located far from the major power grid connections. Hence the need for dedicated transmission lines to where the electrical power is mainly consumed. But there is a major drawback to long distance transmission lines of say 800km (500 miles) or even longer, where on average 8 per cent of the energy is lost.

The further alternating current (AC) is transmitted, the greater the percentage of electrical loss. This has given rise to high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines, where the voltages have been steadily increasing depending on the transfer capability involved. Transmission losses can be reduced to about 3 per cent.

Until recently, the highest voltage involved in the transmission lines was 765 kV. But Siemens Energy of Germany and Chinese partners will have completed a 1400 km transmission system for China Southern Power Grid Company, Guangzhou for commercial use by mid -2010. This is the world’s most powerful HVDC transmission system, at a DC voltage of +/- 800 kV, with a transmission capacity of 5GW (5000 MW). The transmission lines will carry electricity generated by several hydro power plants from Yunnan to the Pearl River mega cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Energy storage enables the electricity power suppliers to optimise returns from peak power, with the widespread use of renewable power, and to make the grid more reliable in the process. For concentrated solar power (CSP), the German company, Solar Millennium at its Andasol 1 solar power plant uses a mixture of sodium and potassium salts heated to above 224C (435 F) to store the solar energy for 7.5 hours with full capacity of 50 MW.

There are in all three Andasol 50 MW CSP parabolic trough solar plants in the one complex, the first of its kind in Europe. They are located in the Andalusia province of southern Spain.

For wind energy to be stored, you need storage batteries. Xcel Energy, the largest US wind utility, has wind farms in Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota and Texas, with more than 3 GW (3,000MW) of wind generating capacity, one fifth of total Xcel electricity capacity of 15 GW. Xcel has installed a 1 MW NAS sodium-sulphur battery from NGK Insulators, Japan at its Luverne, Minnesota wind farm.

Xcel director, Frank Novachek  (April 15 2009) said that wind energy will help the system run more efficiently. “It would smooth out the ups and downs that wind has on our system….there are often times when Xcel doesn’t use all of the energy generated by a wind farm in a given day, and without a way to store it, that energy is lost. The largest barrier to the project is the high cost of the batteries.”

Testing of charge and discharge cycles has been carried out over an extensive  period, and the system is working as envisaged. A fully charged battery will release a steady megawatt of power output over seven hours. On a busy grid network, a one megawatt battery can potentially allow more wind energy megawatts online.

However, there are downsides to the battery, with 35 per cent of the stored power lost,. The cost is a high US$3 million, and it can only be energy efficient at very high temperatures to operate.

Having originally installed a 1.2 MW NAS battery for its West Virginia service, American Energy Power (AEP) has ordered three new NAS batteries totalling 6MW. The US Department of Energy regards energy storage as one of the key strategic growth areas. The ARPA-E agency recently awarded six major battery research projects totalling over $30 million.

The most interesting of the projects for renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, along with a more stable, reliable grid involves the considerable battery research capability of MIT. The research grant is for an all liquid metal grid-scale battery for low cost, large scale storage of electrical energy. This new class of batteries could enable continuous power supply from renewables. That  is just what is urgently needed.

Posted under Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies

by Ray Block

Despite the global recession, solar PV (photovoltaics) continued to grow in calendar 2009, increasing by an estimated 5 per cent. However, it largely took to the fourth quarter before the market became revitalised.

Global market estimates from forecaster Solarbuzz, is for an expected 6.37 GW PV in calendar 2009, with European demand accounting for 71 per cent of the market. Germany’s third quarter (July-September) demand of 980 MW was eclipsed by a more robust 1680 MW fourth quarter.

Germany regained the world lead from Spain, after losing the top spot in.2008, with an estimated 2.5 GW installed. After a record Spanish demand of 2.5 GW in 2008, with the inducement of an exceptional level of feed- in-tariff (FIT), the government capped demand for 2009 at 500 MW and reduced the FIT subsidy. As a result, solar companies downsized their staff from 40,000 to 4,000. With a reduced FIT, demand in 2009 fell to only 150 MW.

The Italian government has set a goal of 3 GW PV by 2016, with 2009 demand expected at 400MW. France wants to achieve PV demand of 1GW a year by 2013, with an installed capacity of 5.4 GW by 2020.

US PV demand for calendar 2009 is estimated by Solarbuzz at 556 MW up from 290 MW in 2008. Enterprise Florida and Greentechmedia, in a study of emerging trends in the US market point to the beginnings of a cost based feed-in-tariff, with California supporting a FIT of up to 750 MW total demand. A major growth factor is the enthusiasm for power utility scale PV systems. 16 states currently have a renewable portfolio standard, with specific provisions for support to solar power.

In the next four years, the utility-scale market will begin to rise markedly, outdistancing the residential market. Enterprise Florida and Greentechmedia expect with falling PV system prices to see the “gradual achievement of price convergence between utility-scale PV and wholesale peak electricity prices.” The study suggests that price convergence could occur as early as this year, initially in the No1 PV market in California.

The most remarkable solar PV company so far is First Solar of Tempe, Arizona, with its outstanding success in thin fim cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, challenging the traditional dominance of crystalline silicon. CdTe modules don’t have the energy efficiency of silicon, but First Solar makes up for that with the ability to decrease radically the cost of solar cells per unit of generated power.

In 2009, First Solar was able to reduce the cost of solar cells to 85 cents (US) per watt, which had been never before achievable.  2009 module production was 1.1GW, almost catching up to industry leaders Q-cells of Germany and Sharp of Japan.

iSuppli forecasts that the thin-film PV module share of the overall market will rise from the 2008 global level of 14.2 per cent to an impressive 34.5 per cent by 2013. First Solar, with nearly 28 per cent of the global market in 2009 is well placed to benefit from this expected growth.

Japan, which had an installed PV capacity of 2.1 GW in 2009 aims to have 28 GW of installed PV by 2020. The government introduced a FIT taking effect on November 1 2009, requiring power utilities to purchase PV generated electricity at Y48/kWh for 10 years.

Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Climate Change, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies, World Inflation