Zero emissions by 2050?
by Ray Block
Although the Chinese were downright difficult and even hostile in the Copenhagen Accord fizzer, showing off their defiance to impress the allies in the E7 (India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey), there is a serious race going on between United States and China over leadership.
The fact that China would not commit to emissions reductions and to international inspectors doesn’t mean that much. What China has been doing in a flat out campaign extending back to 1978 is to keep on increasing energy efficiency. As Julian Wong said in his blog, GreenLeapForward by 2000, Chinese GDP output required two thirds less energy than it did in 1978.
From the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2010, the headline target has been to reduce energy intensity, that is the amount of primary energy per unit of GDP by 20 per cent. Now the big goal is to further reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030.
The Chinese have caught up to the Americans in modernization of plant and equipment, and at this rate of growth will leave them behind in the time range 2020-2030.
A report in China Daily, and further circulated by Reuters dated August 18 2009, says that a panel from the chief planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Development Research Center of the State Council, are saying that with the right policies, emissions could slow after 2020, with a peak around 2030.
The emphasis is to invest significantly in low carbon technology R&D, and this is what the Chinese are doing.
I believe that once China’s emissions peaks, the next step is that they will move quickly to be carbon neutral at least by 2050, if not before. Carbon neutral is to achieve net zero carbon emissions by balancing the carbon generated with an equivalent amount sequestered (that is stored underground), or offset.
Norway is expecting to be carbon neutral by 2030, which given the export commodity base of oil resources, and 80 per cent of its energy usage coming from hydro power makes it understandable, that they can move relatively quickly.
Industrialised Sweden is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050, with renewable energy levels at 50 per cent by 2020. Sweden made a u-turn in 2009, having voted decisively in 1980 to ban expansion of its 10 nuclear power stations, and pledged to close them all down by 2010. Now Sweden is embracing nuclear technology with a new excitement, and so too are a number of other European countries.
If China as probably the largest superpower by the mid century can reach carbon neutrality by 2050, that will be a giant step forward.
by Ray Block
Zero emissions by 2050?
By Ray Block December 23 2009
Although the Chinese were downright difficult and even hostile in the Copenhagen Accord fizzer, showing off their defiance to impress the allies in the E7 (India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey), there is a serious race going on between United States and China over leadership.
The fact that China would not commit to emissions reduction and to international inspectors doesn’t mean that much. What China has been doing in a flat out campaign extending back to 1978 is to keep on increasing energy efficiency. As Julian Wong said in his blog, GreenLeapForward by 2000, Chinese GDP output required two thirds less energy than it did in 1978.
From the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2010, the headline target has been to reduce energy intensity, that is the amount of primary energy per unit of GDP by 20 per cent. Now the big goal is to further reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030.
The Chinese have caught up to the Americans in modernization of plant and equipment, and at this rate of growth will leave them behind in the time range 2020-2030.
A report in China Daily, and further circulated by Reuters dated August 18 2009, says that a panel from the chief planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Development Research Center of the State Council, are saying that with the right policies, emissions could slow after 2020, with a peak around 2030.
The emphasis is to invest significantly in low carbon technology R&D, and this is what the Chinese are doing.
I believe that once China’s emissions peaks, the next step is that they will move quickly to be carbon neutral at least by 2050, if not before. Carbon neutral is to achieve net zero carbon emissions by balancing the carbon generated with an equivalent amount sequestered (that is stored underground), or offset.
Norway is expecting to be carbon neutral by 2030, which given the export commodity base of oil resources, and 80 per cent of its energy usage coming from hydro power makes it more meaningful, that they can move relatively quickly.
Industrialised Sweden is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050, with renewable energy levels at 50 per cent by 2020. Sweden made a u-turn in 2009, having voted decisively in 1980 to ban expansion of its 10 nuclear power stations, and pledged to close them all down by 2010. Now Sweden is embracing nuclear technology with a new excitement, and so too are a number of other European countries.
If China as probably the largest superpower by the mid century can reach carbon neutrality by 2050, that will be a giant step forward.
Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Climate Change, Economies, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies, World Inflation
Add A Comment