Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Australia represents only about 1.5 per cent of global greenhouse gases, but on a per capita basis, it ranks No 1 in carbon emissions.

The  carbon pollution reduction legislation, which has been subject to endless committee hearings, and purposedly delayed to start July 1 2012,  to avoid  the disruption of the global downturn, requires only a modest 5 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 from 2000 levels.

The legislation went through the lower House, but has been held up in the Australian Senate, by a determined rabble of global warming sceptics, despite getting significant legislative concessions by the Rudd government.

If you measure Australia against a significant grouping of carbon emissions targets by other countries, the lucky downunder country comes out poorly.

The Copenhagen summit, from December 7 to 18, will go a long way to an international agreement, which can be codified in 2010, and if need be 2011, so as to slot in when the Kyoto Protocol comes to an end in 2012.

Carbon emission targets so far promised:

*European Union 27-country bloc’s  longstanding commitment to a 20 per cent cut in carbon emissions by 2020 from below 1990 levels. A few of the country membership, such as UK, Belgium, Netherlands would like the EU to move to a unilateral 30 per cent cut.

However, the eastern European members, particularly Poland, which have  coal dependent economies oppose this move, and would like the 2020 target changed to 2030.

*President Obama’s promise for the US is a  17 per cent emissions reduction by 2020 from below 2005 levels, although the cap and trade legislation is held up in the US Senate. According to the WWF, this is equal to a 4 to 5 per cent reduction from below 1990 levels to have a meaningful comparison with the EU target.

President Obama also said his Administration’s overall goal is to reduce emissions 30 per cent below 2005 levels in 2025, 42 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and 83 per cent below 2005 levels by 2050.

* China, which is now the world’s largest carbon emitter, with the US the second largest is committed to a meaningful slowing in greenhouse gas emissions. The undertaking is to reduce carbon intensity by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. Carbon intensity is the amount of CO2 for each unit of GDP (gross domestic product).

UN climate officials have said to Associated Press that the 40-45 per cent cut would put China on a path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions about 13 per cent from business- as- usual, the level emissions would have reached without any action. As part of its pollution control policy, China has announced that it plans to invest up to US454 billion in environmental protection in the five years to 2015.

  *Japan is committed to a 25 per cent cut in emissions by 2020 from 199o levels. The new Democratic Party government hasn’t spelled out how the emissions cuts are to be achieved. 

But the Japanese steel industry, which has the most efficient emission controls among world steelmakers, will provide their latest technologies for cutting CO2 emissions to Chinese steelmakers.

 In return, the Japanese can include the emissions reductions in their own quotas under the Kyoto Protocol’s clean development mechanism. If more of Japanese industry  follow the same approach, it won’t be too difficult to reach the Copenhagen target.

*Brazil will be tabling its commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions by between  36.1 per cent and 38.9 per cent of their business-as-usual level by 2020. The country is the fourth biggest carbon emitter in the world, largely due to deforestation in the Amazon. Brazil is looking to international funding to help in the remediation process.

*Canada is undertaking to reduce carbon emissions 20 per cent by 2020 from 2006 levels, although legislation is yet to be introduced. Even so, its emissions would still be 24 per cent higher in 2020 from 1990 levels.

* India is yet to announce a reduction in either carbon intensity, or in emissions, but it will make its plans known at Copenhagen. A range of incentives is shortly  to be announced  for 714 of the nation’s most energy-intensive installations across nine sectors.

As with China, energy efficiencywill be the key, with a national registry for energy-efficiency certificates, which will have a one year tenure. It sounds like a type of cap and trade. Prime Minister Singh says that the government has “a very ambitious national plan to combat climate change.”

 *Indonesia, the third largest carbon emitter in the world is undertaking to  reduce greenhouse gas emissions 26 per cent by 2020. As with Brazil, a strong campaign to save the forests and more of the peatlands, which  provide the carbon sinks would greatly help to achieve the target reductions. 

* South Korea is committing to a 4 per cent reduction by 2020 from 2005 levels.  This is equivalent to a 30 per cent reduction on the business- as-usual projection for 2020.

POSCO, the world’s fourth largest steelmaker, accounting  for 10 per cent of Korea’s total carbon emissions is currently studying the brand new technology of the hydrogen steelmaking process. This technology  doesn’t emit CO2 emissions, which would be a tremendous achievement, if it can be done.

* Russian President Medvedev said his country “would try” to reduce greenhouse emissions by 25 per cent, and in the process seek to increase energy efficiency by 40 per cent. 

* The 5o African countries, which have no plans to cut carbon emissions are demanding that rich countries commit to deep cuts in carbon emissions that add to global warming. In a show of unity, African countries blame advanced economies for using fossil fuels to take the fast track to prosperity, but at the cost os unleashing today’s climate nightmare.

A similar attitude to Africans is likely to be taken by Central and South American countries.

On the table for consideration at Copenhagen is that the rich industrial countries will subscribe US$ 10 billion a year to help developing countries become equipped to cope with climate change, and to make available technology transfers and know how on renewable energy. 

 

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Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Climate Change, Commodity Prices, Economies, Food, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies, World Inflation, energy efficiency