by Ray Block
The World Energy Outlook 2009 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is quite stark in its projections of energy growth over the years ahead to 2030.
In a continuation of a high carbon business as usual scenario, world electricity demand would rise by 2.5 per cent a year to 2030, of which 80 per cent will be in non-OECD countries, mainly Chins and India.
Globally, additions to power generation capacity by 2030 to total 4,800 gigawatts (GW), equal to five times the existing capacity of United States.
Coal remains the backbone fuel of the power sector, with its share to rise from 40 per cent to 44 per cent.
Non-hydro renewables in total power output to rise from 2.5 per cent in 2007 to 8.6 per cent in 2030, with wind power seeing the biggest absolute increase.
Capital investment required to meet projected energy demand through to 2030 is huge, amounting to US$ 26 trillion in 2008 dollars. Broken down on an average annual basis, the capital investment required would need to be around $1.1 trillion per year, equal to 1.4 per cent of GDP.
Over half of all energy investment is needed in developing countries, where demand and production is projected to grow faster. However, “financing energy investment will, in most cases, be more difficult and costly than before the global financial crisis took hold.”
If these trends were to persist in the long term, says the IEA, global energy related CO2 emissions would drive greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in excess of 1,000 parts per million (ppm), leading inevitably to temperature increases rising up to 6 degrees Celsius.
To move to a 2 degree Celsius rise in global temperature, implicit in the 450 ppm scenario of a low carbon economy by 2030, would require formidable hurdles to be met. The IEA is saying there would be need for an industrial and consumer revolution, with appropriate price signals for the world’s use of fossil fuels to peak by 2020, “if it is to escape a dangerous spike in global temperatures.”
The IEA is calling for a deal in Copenhagen. “We need a signal for the energy industry. Without that, nothing will move. The need will be for ”better energy efficiency, rapid growth in renewable energy, and increased use of nuclear power will be critical to move the world away from fossil fuels. A second revolution would have to happen in the automobile industry, so that six of every 10 cars sold in 2030 are hybrids or electric.”
It is hard to believe that with so many climate change sceptics around, wearing their religion of business as usual, and no change at all costs, holding the rest of us hostage to ransom, that substantial change can possibly take place, unless the price of oil was to streak up to US$200 a barrel, over the next five years.
It may be perverse to say it, but I hope the oil price does spike up. It will be the only way people will take notice.
Posted under
Carbon Abatement Scheme,
Climate Change,
Economies,
Global Warming,
Low Carbon Economy,
Renewable Energies,
World Inflation
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