Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Did you read as a kid any of the Doctor Dolittle stories by Hugh Lofting, or possibly read the  stories to your own kids, or grandkids.

Doctor Dolittle a medical doctor, bored with treating human patients preferred to treat animals, with whom he could speak in their own languages.

The rarest animal in the Lofting jungle was a pushmi-pullyu, no tail but a head at each end, and sharp horns on each head. No matter which way you came towards him, he was always facing you, said the story teller.

One of the animals tells the Doctor to take the pushmi-pullyu, the rarest animal in the jungle  back home. “Your fortune’s made. People will pay any money to see him.” 

In the US Senate, where a round of hearings on the Climate Bill will start  October 27 , we see the ‘pushmi-pullyu’ in action. In the ‘Yes We Can’ column, Environment and Energy Daily, up dated to September 25, 2009, says there are 32 committed climate change senators. All these senators are   Democrats.

Then there are 13 senators, Environment and Energy Daily say, are ‘Probably Yes’ voters.  There are 2 Republican Senators in this group-Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both of Maine in New England, flanked by 11 Democrats.

In the ’No We Can’t column, there are 22 climate skeptics. They are joined by 12 other senators in the ‘Probably No’ camp, making in all 34 senators, all Republican.

In the ensuing tug of war, the ‘Yes’ and Probably Yes’ number 45, and at the other end, the ‘No’ and ‘Probably No’ are a collective of 34, making for a stalemate.

This leaves the crucial ’Fence Sitters,’ with 21 in this assembly. This motley group consists of 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans. If they all joined the climate changers, the result would be 66 ‘ayes’ and 34 ‘noes. No filibuster,and the Senate and the House bills would go into the Conference stage, where the two bills would be blended together.

If  such a miracle was to happen, with the US  able to present legislation on climate change and energy to the Copenhagen COP 15  meetings in December, it would lead in 2010 and 2011 to the beginnings of real change in international commitments on climate change.

But will such a miracle really happen? Much has been made of an apparent softening of  one of the Fence Sitters, the moderate Republican, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who started the beginnings of a breakthrough with the Democratic majority.

The New York Times OP-ED of October 11 2009 with Senators John Kerry of the liberal Democrats, and Lindsey Graham joining together, say  ”we refuse to accept the argument that the United States cannot lead the world in addressing global climate change. ”

“We are also convinced that we have found both a framework for climate legislation to pass Congress and the blueprint for a clean energy future that will revitalise our economy, protect current jobs and create new ones, safeguard our national security and reduce pollution.”

They outline a five point challege. The first is an acceptance of “aggressive reductions” in carbon emissions.

Second, while investing in renewable energy, “nuclear power needs to be a  core component of electricity generation, if we are to meet our emission reduction targets…….We need to jettison cumbersome regulations that have stalled the construction of nuclear plants in favour of a streamlined permit system.”

Third, the United States “should aim to become the Saudi Arabia of clean coal. For this reason, we need to provide new financial incentives for companies that develop capture  and sequestration technology. In addition, we are committed to seeking compromise on additional onshore and offshore oil and gas exploration.

Fourth, a border tax on items produced in countries that do not accept US environmental standards.

Finally, the creation  of a floor and ceiling price for the cost of emission allowances to safeguard important industries making investments necessary to join the clean energy era.  

The 15 Democrat ‘Fence Sitters’ are from a mix of farm, manufacturing and coal states, where the Climate Bill provides a great deal of incentives. The emphasis on trade imposts on imports from Asia and elsewhere to protect American jobs is a prerequisite to get these senators on board, irrespective of how the measure would be seen internationally.