Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

The US  Senate can’t deliver to Barack Obama the clean energy and security legislation he needs to negotiate at Copenhagen this December.

The  effect of this is that 2010 becomes an even bigger test for the United States, as to whether Congress can deliver effective legislation even then, allowing for the mid term congressional elections next year in November.

But even if Congress can deliver, China’s determination not to provide a short term carbon cap for 2020, but to fall back on aspirational targets for 2050 will make international negotiations more or less ineffective.

Coming on top of the giant US budget deficit following the $787 billion stimulus package, the health reform legislation, which is Barack Obama’s major reform undertaking to electors,  is giving the opposition Republicans renewed political will to upset the Democrat reform agenda.

The series of town hall meetings up and down the country on the proposed government health insurance reforms has more than ever polarised the electorate, forcing a possible backdown, as highly organised protesters are sapping the political support base of the President.

So, when it comes to the climate change and energy bill, which will have passed through the relevant committees by the end of September, and come to the floor of the Senate, there is no likelihood of the Democratic leadership securing 60 votes out of the 100 Senators for the measure.

The consequence is that the climate change and energy bill is going to have a tough time, with the Republicans delaying the measure to filibuster as long as possible.

The online www.politico.com and Bloomberg (August 14 2009) quotes four Democrat Senators seeking to abandon efforts to pass the climate bill this year, and concentrate on a narrower bill to require use of 20 per cent renewable energy by 2020.

The four senators- Kent Conrad and Bryon Dorgan from North Dakota, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas are all from farm states. They are under no illusion as to the still vehement opposition of the American Farm Bureau Federation and related farm lobbies.

This is despite the considerable concessions which House Agriculture Committee chairman Rep Collin Peterson of Minnesota  forced on the Democratic leadership in the Waxman Markey bill, and the fact that the farm sector is excluded from caps on carbon emissions.