Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

By Ray Block

I wrote a post last year on the theme that financial speculators play too big a role in the setting of many commodity prices.

In a letter to the Financial Times (July 25 2008), Senator Joe Lieberman, the Democrat leaning chairman of the US Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs committee and two other Senators said that “financial speculators are overwhelming our commodity markets and leading to substantial increases in food and energy prices for years to come.”

The reality is that the speculators are at it again, despite the slow recovery from the global financial crisis, and the misery caused by a reported one billion poor people in the world, who are under- nourished, and can’t afford the continuing high food prices in many countries.

Right now, it is sugar prices which have risen fast, but it won’t be too long before cereals join in the stampede for higher prices.

Oil prices too are on the increase, despite the still intense recession in most countries.

The chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol told the Financial Times in London (August 4 2009), “that the world economy cannot sustain any further rise in the oil price,” and said that prices higher than US$70 a barrel “could damp a world recovery.”

Oil prices in Europe this year have so far reached a high of US$73.87. Speaking to the Independent newspaper in the UK, Birol said that “global oil production was now likely to peak within 10 years and that governments were woefully under-prepared for such an eventuality.”

According to an investigation of more than 800 oil fields by the IEA, the average rate of decline in oil production (this is the depletion rate) is now running at 6.7 per cent a year, compared to a 2007 published figure of 3.7 per cent. (Business Green.com August4 2009)

Against a future where oil supply will peak and start to decline, with the inevitability of fast rising energy prices, oil price speculation at this stage  is just  plain greed and gouging and should be controlled.

Gary Gensler, chairman of  the  Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US regulator, (July 27 2009) told Bloomberg financial service that the US “must seriously consider” strict position limits on energy markets to curb speculation.

Back in 2008, under the Bush Administration, the CFTC was opposed to any transparency, suppressing the data on the activities of speculators trading in commodites. Fortunately, the Obama change of government has brought a realisation that commodity prices should not be the plaything of financial speculators.

Jeff Korzenik, who writes the financial blog (www.inefficientfrontiers.com) in a piece for FT Energy Source (July  30 2009) pointed out that the current levels of speculation are “unequivocally bad.”  Commodities are conveniently treated in financial circles as an alternative asset class, but they are very different to stock prices.

As Korzenik says, there are a lot of ” innocent bystanders including the world’s poorest, who are disproportionately impacted by higher fuel prices.”

Let’s hope that the CFTC acts soon to curb the Wall Street financial speculators, not only in energy prices, but in other commodities as well.