Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Peter Ford of the Christian Science Monitor (August 10 2009) in a wakeup call to Americans says that China already makes a third of the world’s solar cells, and in 2010, will become the largest market in the world for wind turbines.

Ford also referred to China’s innovation in launching the world’s first all electric car for sale this year. This is BVD’s F3DM, with its own proprietary LiFePO4 battery.   Ford quotes Li Junfeng, deputy head of energy research at the NDRC, China’s top planning agency in Beijing, who asserts: “we will catch up with international advanced technology very quickly.”

China currently ranks No 2 in the world economy having surpassed Japan and Germany, with only the US ahead. It will be fascinating in the next 20 or 30 years, to see who remains ahead in the race between the US and China.

But being a three leg race, with India hungry to get a share of technological leadership, the ultimate top dog may be a bit of a surprise.

In the first half of 2009, the US increased its new wind energy  generating capacity to just over 4 GW to reach a total capacity of 29 GW.

In the same six months to June, Germany, ranking No 2 in the world wind stakes after the US, added 800 MW to reach a total capacity of 27.4 GW. 

In the same six months, lower ranking China added about 4.5 GW to reach a total wind energy generating capacity of 12 GW. Over the last five years, China has managed to double its wind energy capacity every year. And this rapid growth is expected to continue over the next 11 years, so that by 2020, the 12 GW will have mushroomed to 100 GW.

The rapid growth in Chinese wind energy is being repeated in other renewables, most notahly in solar PV, where capacity is expected to be 2GW  after a 15 times increase to 2011. It will then undergo a similar rapid escalation to 20 GW by 2020.

Back to wind energy, Reuters report that China has started construction of the country’s first 10 GW wind farm in Jiuquan in the northwest Gansu province. This is being built in two stages.

The first stage, a 3.8 GW base comprising 18  200 MW and two 1oo MW wind farms will be completed in 2010. The second phase consisting of 40 200 MW wind farms will start in 2o10, and will be open to foreign investment.

 The government’s National Energy Administration has planned six 10 GW-level wind energy complexes in areas rich in wind resources, including Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Heibei and Jiangsu.

Once you add China’s large hydro resources, and new nuclear power, along with biomass and biofuels, China will reach its 15 to 20 per cent renewable energy level by 2020.