Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Bloomberg reports (July 2 2009) that Senator John Kerry, now the chairman of the influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and one time presidential candidate, says that the “US Senate may pass legislation to allow climate change, and then fail to approve a global treaty that commits nations to do so.”

Kerry said: “We may be able to pass the (climate and energy bill) with “something that puts America on track to accomplish our set of goals. But we may pass it with 60 votes, or 61 or whatever, and that’s not 67.”

This Tuesday saw four Administration officials give evidence to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee led by chairwoman Barbara Boxer. They were Stephen Chu, Energy Secretary; Lisa Jackson, Administrator Environmental Protection Agency; Tom Vilsack Agriculture Secretary; and Ken Salazar, Interior Secretary.

Wednesday sees the Senate Finance Committee holding a hearing on the international trade issues in the light of global warming legislation and Kerry’s committee is examining the European cap and trade system.

The three major issues before the US Senate are:

Ø      The extent to which there will be similar legislation to the House’s American Clean and Energy Bill (ACTS), with the exception of striking out the non tariff impost on imports from countries, which haven’t imposed climate change legislation.

Ø      Whether the majority in favour of the legislation can gather 60 or more votes to prevent the minority Republicans from a campaign of filibuster. The impact of filibuster would allow Senators to speak at endless length, to the extent they can physically continue to remain standing in their place, which could delay an overall vote to be carried by some weeks.

Ø      Even if the Senate majority can hold fast with 60 votes plus, they would need to increase the majority in favour of the legislation to 67, for an international treaty on climate change to be carried by the US Congress.

Were the Copenhagen meeting to have strong international support in December 2009, it will still take more than two years for an international treaty to be hammered out in a post-Kyoto protocol setting.

So while it is impossible to believe that a climate and energy treaty will be passed by a majority of 67 votes to 33 over the balance of 2009, given the hostility of the Republicans, the issue is whether such a majority could be put together in 2010 or 2011.

But will the Democrat majority get at least 60 votes, when the Climate and Energy Bill goes to the floor of the Senate in September?

Nate Silver, who writes the US political blog www.fivethirtyeight.com says it is touch and go whether the majority would secure as much as 60 votes. He concludes after weighing up several combinations of Senators voting one way or the other:

 “Although the model considers only 52 Senators to be more likely than not to vote for the bill, there are somewhere between 62-66 votes, that are potentially in play. But Joe Mauer*-like precision will be required in targeting the undecided, and further compromises would almost certainly be needed, some of them designed to placate as few as one senator.

“The question is how many ornaments the Democrats could place on the Christmas Tree before it starts to collapse under its own weight.” You can say Amen to that.

*For the record, Joe Mauer, is the highly successful major Baseball Catcher for the Minnesota Twins.