Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

At the US-China climate and energy conference in Beijing, there was a lot of soothing words, but at this stage at least nothing of matching substance.

Charlie McElwee, an international energy and climate change lawyer based in Shanghai in his blog China Environmental Law (July 30) says the memorandum of understanding (MOU) at the end of the two day talks was the “flimsient and vaguest” you could ever hope to see.

Senator John Kerry, the chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, while diplomatic was blunt: “I’m not alone in expressing disappointment with the pace and substance of US-China climate change discussions.

“Climate change, perphaps the single greatest challenge we face, more could have and should have been achieved. We did sign a MOU that included the language on climate change.”

“But the dates,timelines and road map towards an agreement – the fully defined mutuality of effort between our two countries-did not materialize.’”

“….Aspirational statements (on clean energy and energy efficiency efforts,) cannot stand in for legal commitments on the international stage. That’s why I went to China this spring- to communicate that America understands that we do have an obligation to lead, and we will. ”

“But China needs to understand that we will not enter into a global treaty without a meaningful commitment from China to be part of the solution. ..The debate we should be having right now is, what schedule and what scale will China act on- and will it be enough.”

“We must persuade China that quick and decisive action is actually in its own interest. To get there, we must build a broad and deep collaboration based on what China can and will do now.”

Charlie McIlwee in his blog quoted the US chief negotiator on climate change, Todd Stern: “What you need to have successful negotiations is a party willing to negotiate. In the absence of that, the dialogues are consumed by presentations on “forest efforts.” (he means wall paper waffling on stuff.)

Stern went on: “…we’re slogging ahead (to a climate change agreement). I think we will get there. I think we will end up with an agreement. But the perspective of the major developing countries like  China, India, and the others is quite different. The issues are difficult. There is a lot of engrained and embedded perspective on this issue that goes back now for 15 years.”

“And you know, I think I’m not going to kid anybody. I don’t think it’s easy, but I do think that we will get there, and I think that there is a lot of interest on the Chinese side fundamentally to arrive at a constructive and successful outcome in Copenhagen…”

“And …..I think it’s going to come one step at a time, one meeting at a time, one conversation at a time, and not in some sudden fell swoop or sudden breakthrough.”

Will patience at the international level win  out in the long run? As you can see, diplomats have to be incredibly patient and never spit the dummy. But with only so  many weeks to the Decmber meetings in Copenhagen, with one meeting at a time, one conversation at a time etc, it’s hard to believe that there will be a Eureka moment when it all comes together.