Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

 The second of six meetings of the UN Climate Change agenda in 2009, with the last of these to take place in Copenhagen in December is meeting this and next week (June 1-12) in Bonn, Germany.

 Preliminary discussions in telephone calls with leading participants highlight the wide areas of disagreement between the “richer” and “poorer” countries.

 

China, as the fourth largest world economy and a claimant as a “poorer” nation in terms of the low per capita income of its population is taking an aggressive approach. It is demanding on behalf of the developing world, that the richer nations not only agree to a 40 per cent reduction in their carbon emissions by 2020, but also to make good on substantial investments in green projects in developing countries. 

 

Alister Doyle, the environment correspondent for Reuters (May 19 2009) pointed out that over 120 pages of draft texts put together by the UN Climate Change Secretariat indicate a sharp deadlock between the two halves of the world in richer versus poorer nations.

 

The core disagreement is over how to share out the necessary cuts to be made to curb greenhouse gases in coming years, and particularly in carbon reductions.

 

The Reuters report based on the UN climate change officials is that to avoid the standoff, “finance could be an area to build confidence.”

 

Yves de Boer, head of the UN climate change secretariat said that “working out how funds could be mobilised for developing nations would be a huge positive influence on the negotiations.”

 

Seventeen major emitters are said to have made rapid progress in Paris last week on how to find cash to help developing nations rein in emissions. A Mexican proposal is for a green fund to raise at least US$10 billion a year.

 

All countries would contribute based on factors such as historic and present level of emissions, along with levies based on differentials of gross domestic product- making the European Union and United States the largest contributors.

 

Cash would go to wind and solar projects, along with other renewables, and also for methods to alleviate major changes in weather patterns leading to floods, droughts, heatwaves, species extinctions, and rising sea levels.

 

There is realism that with time running short ahead of Copenhagen, many details of the new deal to succeed the existing Kyoto Protocol after 2012 will end up in December still in very inadequate form.

 

“Everyone agrees that there is going to be a lot of work to be done after Copenhagen, no matter what,” said Aiden Mayer of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

 

Options in some of the draft texts- such as whether to allow credits for investments in carbon capture and storage from coal-fired power plants in developing nations-will simply mean putting off decisions until 2010 or even 2011.

 

The US Special Envoy for Climate Change, Todd Stern, said that “I don’t think you are going to see a 25-to 40 per cent aggregate number” for cuts by rich nations below 1990 levels by 2020. It’s possible when you add everything up, that you won’t be that far away from it.”

 

US emissions have risen sharply in recent years, so the Congress’s goal of a 17 per cent cut in emissions from 2005 levels by 2020, and by 83 per cent by 2050 works out, says the UN climate change officials, at only a 4 per cent cut relative to 1990.

 

European Union emissions have fallen since 1990. So the EU goal of a 20 per cent cut in emissions by 20 per cent from below 1990 levels by 2020, and by 30 per cent, if other rich nations follow suit, works out expressed in 2005 levels, as cuts of carbon reductions of 14 per cent by 2020, and 24 per cent by 2030 respectively.

 

So, after Copenhagen in December, there will still be a long road to go before post-Kyoto is secured. Hopefully, it will all be wrapped up in 2010.

 

 

 

 

  

Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Climate Change, Economies, European Emission Trading Scheme, Global Warming, Low Carbon Economy, Renewable Energies, World Inflation