Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

Over the next two years, the US and China will be fighting out leadership in world energy installations. 2008 saw global installations of wind energy reaching 120.8 GW (120,800 MW). This was an increase of 28.8 per cent from the previous year.

Worldwide, 27 GW of new wind power generation capacity was installed in 2008 -36 per cent more than in 2007. The US increase was 8.36 GW to reach a total installed capacity of 25.17 GW overtaking the previous world leader Germany with 23.90 GW. Total European wind capacity in 2008 rose to 66 GW, with the established markets of Germany, Spain and Denmark now more balanced by France, UK, and Italy.

The fast rising Chinese market doubled its wind energy capacity in 2007, and doubled it again in 2008. Wind energy installed capacity is estimated at 12.2GW, and the Chinese say that it will nearly double again in 2009. As the US is expected to taper off wind growth this year, 2010 should see China’s installed capacity getting very close to the US.  China would then have met its 2020 target of 30 GW 10 years ahead of time.

At the same time, the Chinese manufacturing capacity in wind turbines and components is becoming increasingly mature and export oriented. Li Lunfeng, Secretary General of the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association said that Chinese companies will enter the UK and Japanese market for blades.