Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

The US$789 billion fiscal stimulus plan, which Republicans fought so bitterly to derail is now law. Nearly $20 billion is earmarked for renewable energy  and $11billion to modernize the American electricity grid.

This is a great leap forward for the US, at a time when the banks were knocking back new loans for renewable energy projects. And this is, despite the fast growth the US industry has made in wind energy to become the world leader, and equally the speed in expanding its lead in solar thermal, whose future is unlimited.

The $11 billion to be spent on the electricity grid is urgently needed. While it’s not nearly enough, it’s a start.

THIS is a great step forward, at a time of deep world recession, when the banks were knocking back new proposals for renewable energy.

As this blog pointed out on December 29 2008, (Smart Grid and Storage, the big thing in venture capital in 2009), there was an urgent need to bring up to date the creaking North American electricity grid, with about 150,000 miles of high voltage transmission system, sustaining large losses and inefficiencies, and adding greatly to costs.

Referring to a study prepared by Global Smart Energy, the American electricity grid was “never designed to ship the large amounts of power across the country. But that’s precisely what it is forced to do. …..Transmission losses, which occur partly due to congestion, have jumped from 5 per cent in 1970 to 9.5 per cent in 2001.” And those losses, with the increased demand would be much greater in 2009.

So, good on President Obama. They may have started late in carbon abatement, with the global warming sceptics in the Bush White House, but they have made great strides in recent months. It’s good to see real American leadership at work.

by Ray Block

 Since the publication of the 2007 IPCC Climate Change report, new scientific forecasts have been released, which are much more alarming than ever before. In October 2008, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) released a report summarising scientific opinion since the publication of the 2007 IPCC report, It was concluded that there had been an under estimation of the speed of the change.

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The WWF’s report entitled “Climate Change:Faster, Stronger, Sooner” says that the science of climate change has moved on since the Climate Change report was released. IPCC Vice Chair Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele said:”it is clear that climate change is already having a greater impact that most scientists had anticipated, so it’s vital that international mitigation and adaptation responses become swifter and more ambitious.” 

Some key findings from the WWF 2008 report which relate to the Northern Hemisphere.                                            

Ø      The Arctic Ocean is losing sea ice up to 30 years ahead of IPCC predictions. It is now predicted that the summer sea ice could completely disappear between 2013 and 2040- something that hasn’t happened in a million years. 

Ø       The sea level rise is expected to reach more than double the IPCC maximum estimate of 0.59metres by the end of the century, putting vast coastal areas at risk.

Ø      Natural carbon sinks- the areas that help to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere are losing their ability to soak up growing levels of emissions faster than expected.

Ø      Marine ecosystems in the North and Baltic Sea are being exposed to the warmest temperatures measured since records began.

Ø      The number and intensity of extreme cyclones over the UK and the North Sea are projected to increase, leading to increased wind speeds and storm related losses over Western and Central Europe.

A January 22 2009 report in the magazine Nature said that the Antarctica ice sheet is melting, and much more than initially thought, spelling big trouble for Australia as sea levels rise. US researchers have pored over data from satellites and weather stations in the biggest ever study of the frozen continent’s climate, and found it is warming after all.

University of Adelaide Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability director Barry Brook says the finding is alarming. “That’s bad news if you’re living near the Australian coast.” Nature reports that climate scientists now estimates the melting of Antarctica ice sheets will cause the world’s sea levels to rise by 1 to 2 metres by the end of the century.

Following up this story, Science Daily (February 6 2009) reported that geophysicists from University of Toronto and Oregon State University have shown that should the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse and melt- as many scientists are concerned it will – it is the coastlines of North America and of countries in the southern Indian Ocean that will face the greatest threats from rising sea levels.

Professor David  Karoly of the School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, and Dr Greg Holland of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research were leading speakers at an international conference of climate scientists held in Melbourne this week.

Their conclusion was that of the developed countries, Australia was the most vulnerable to devastating bushfires and drought in southern Australia, and to category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number in the north-east and north-west coastlines of Northern Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology in its annual drought statement (January 5 2009) warned that Australia is still in the grip of some of the worst drought conditions since records began, thanks to the effects of climate change. “The combination of record heat and widespread drought during the past five to 10 years over large parts of southern and eastern Australia is without historical precedent and is, at least partly, a result of climate change”

The University of New South Wales (February 6 2009) reported that a team of Australian scientists, led by Dr Caroline Ummenhofer and Professor Matthew    England of the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, has detailed for the first time how a phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a variation and irregular cycle of warming and cooling of ocean water- dictates whether moisture- bearing winds are carried across the southern half of Australia.  

The findings will be published in the journal Geophysical Review Letters. “We have shown that the state of the Indian Ocean is highly important for rainfall and droughts in south-East Australia. More than the variability associated with the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is the key factor for driving major south-east Australian droughts over the past 120 years,” says Dr Ummenhofer.  

by Ray Block

Over the next two years, the US and China will be fighting out leadership in world energy installations. 2008 saw global installations of wind energy reaching 120.8 GW (120,800 MW). This was an increase of 28.8 per cent from the previous year.

Worldwide, 27 GW of new wind power generation capacity was installed in 2008 -36 per cent more than in 2007. The US increase was 8.36 GW to reach a total installed capacity of 25.17 GW overtaking the previous world leader Germany with 23.90 GW. Total European wind capacity in 2008 rose to 66 GW, with the established markets of Germany, Spain and Denmark now more balanced by France, UK, and Italy.

The fast rising Chinese market doubled its wind energy capacity in 2007, and doubled it again in 2008. Wind energy installed capacity is estimated at 12.2GW, and the Chinese say that it will nearly double again in 2009. As the US is expected to taper off wind growth this year, 2010 should see China’s installed capacity getting very close to the US.  China would then have met its 2020 target of 30 GW 10 years ahead of time.

At the same time, the Chinese manufacturing capacity in wind turbines and components is becoming increasingly mature and export oriented. Li Lunfeng, Secretary General of the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association said that Chinese companies will enter the UK and Japanese market for blades.

by Ray Block

The quotation is from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s Ancient Mariner. It echoes the dilemma facing the planet today, where devastating droughts and floods are already leading to water shortages world wide.

The world population is expected to rise 2.5 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050, the increase being equivalent to the total population in 1950. The whole of the increase will be in the developing countries to reach 7.9 billion in 41 years, which for some countries will be standing room only. By that time, 3 billion people will be severely short of water.  

International Alert in a 2007 report A Climate of Conflict identified 46 countries home to 2.7 billion people, where climate change and water-related crises create a high risk of violent conflict. A further 56 countries, representing another 1.2 billion, are at high risk of political instability.

The danger of water shortage is not confined to the poorer countries. In the US, California’s governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said a few days ago that the state “is headed toward one of the worst water crises in its history.” The state’s Department of   Works says that that California seems on track for its worst drought since the early 1990s.

Catherine Brahic (New Scientist February 1 2009) says that the three year drought may be a consequence of the expanding tropics, which are gradually growing as greenhouse gases warm the planet. “”Climate scientists have documented a slow progression of low latitude weather systems towards the poles, and matched by rising temperatures in many temperature regions.

Thomas Reichler of the University of Utah says the subtropics is more feared than widening of the tropical zone itself. While the tropical belt is hot and humid,the subtropics suffer from severe drought.  According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, 36 states will face water shortages by 2013, with the bulk of the population projected for the driest areas.

The intensity of the drought on the US west coast is mirrored in Australia, which has been severely affected by the worst drought in more than 100 years across the south eastern areas, hitting hard the food bowl of the Murray Darling river system.

The Pacific Institute in releasing the latest edition of the World’s Water 2008-2009, has an alarming chapter on China’s intense water problems. “China’s water resources are overallocated, inefficiently used, and grossly polluted by human and industrial waste, to the point that vast stretches of rivers are dead and dying, lakes are cesspools of waste, ground water aquifers are over-pumped and unsustainably consumed, and direct adverse impacts on both human and ecosystem health are widespread and growing.

Of the 20 most seriously polluted cities in tthe world,16 are in China. Three hundred million people lack access to safe drinking water. Significant outbreaks of illness, including cancers, are being reported in heavily polluted regions, driving up health care costs and growing public concern. There is growing internal dissent and conflict over both water allocation and water quality, raising new political pressres on the central and provincial governments to come to grips with water problems.”