Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray Block

 The 12 day gabfest at the UN climate change talks in Poznan Poland, with a cast of thousands including the delegates is full of opposing views, as could be expected. It demonstrates just how difficult it is going to be to reach agreement this time next year, when hard decisions about the level of carbon emissions are to be made at the Copenhagen meeting.

Poznan in hindsight was unfortunately timed, although the date was selected two years ago, as it comes in the midst of a deep world recession, and financial markets still in disarray, with large scale unemployment and belt tightening.

Renewable energy developments have been largely put on hold. And with the world’s most important change agent, Barack Obama, not taking office until January 20 robs the Poznan’s deliberations of any real significance.

The new President’s proposed targets -to cut US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to reduce them 80 per cent by 2050- are being condemned by developing countries, particularly India and China, as being too little demonstrate just how difficult it is for the richer countries to smooth out significant rifts with the poorer 85 per cent of the global population.

Leaving aside the global warming sceptics who are always going to cast doubt that man-made emissions are leading to a dangerous level of emissions in  the atmosphere, there are a lot of conflicting issues to be reconciled.

Even the coalition of interests making up the European Union are at odds over decisions of the Brussels officials, who have set targets of a 20 per cent cut in greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020, a 20 per cent renewable energy target by 2020, and a 20 per cent increase in energy efficiency by 2020.

Earlier this month, the current President of the EU, Nicholas Sarzosy, was being challenged by the nine eastern European countries led by Poland, who have no chance of reaching the targets within the next 12 years. On top of that, Italy is also rebelling with these targets.

The greater level of impatience by developing countries for very substantial cuts in carbon emissions by developed countries is being matched by UN requests that the rich countries pay heavily to assist the developing countries cut their own emissions.

South African Environmental Affairs Minister Marthinus Van Schalkwyn said all rich countries must commit to “deep absolute domestic emission cuts” of 80-95 per cent by2020. “Japan, Russia, Australia and Canada have avoided putting their numbers on the table for too long. They now need to come forward with credible and ambitious mid-term targets within the 25 to 40 per cent range.

”The United Nations says that the developed countries will need to make available US$130 billion or more to enable the developing countries start the transforming role in cutting emissions. In addition, they say it is the duty of the developed countries to make available the transfer of technologies, that would help the developing countries play their role in mitigating climate change. Such as being given solar and wind energy technologies.