Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth

by Ray

It is easy to paint China as the chief culprit for the dramatic rise in world carbon emissions.

After all, China as the world’s most concentrated centre of manufacturing produces more than 500 million metric tons of steel a year. That is equal to 38 per cent of the world total. Chinese coal consumption.in 2007 totalled 2.9 billion short tons, equal to more than one third of the world total.

With sulphur bearing coal dust in the atmosphere and other greenhouse gas emissions, including the large residential use of coal, it is understandable that deaths in China from respiratory problems are around 400,000 a year.

Understandably, even if global warming wasn’t a fact of life, the Chinese have a vested interest in a rapid expansion of renewable energies.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s chief industrial planning agency in its latest five year plan 2006-2010 places critical importance on the medium and long term developments for renewable energy. The latest directive was released on September 4 2007.

NDRC sees the main renewable developments in hydro power, biomass, wind and solar developments. In 2008, the renewable energy proportion of total energy consumed in China was about 8 per cent, and this will rise to 10 per cent by 2010.The renewable target for 2020 is for 15 per cent.

The ambitious program is expected to cost around the equivalent of US$100 billion. The Chinese expansion in renewable energy will be getting closer to the renewable energy targets in the European Union, where the 2020 goal is for 20 per cent.

Biomass energy resources include mainly straw and other agricultural wastes, waste from forestry and forest product processing, animal manure, energy crops (eg biofuels), organic effluent from industry, municipal wastewater, municipal solid waste. Of about 900 million tons of waste from forestry and forest product processing available every year, nearly 300 million tons, or around 150 million tons coal equivalent (tce) can be used for fuel.

There are also large areas of marginal land to cultivate energy crops, including bagasse. Similarly, biogas and municipal sold waste are also biomass resources. Presently, China’s total biomass resource that can be potentially converted to energy is about 500 million tce.

By 2010, the five year plan expects installed capacity of biomass power to reach 5.5 GW, and this is to be increased to 30 GW by 2020. Similarly, installed capacity of power generation based on municipal solid waste will be 500 MW by 2010, and with a sixfold increase this will amount to 3 GW by 2020.

Biomass pellets will be another by product. The annual use of biomass pellet fuels in 2010 will reach 1 million tons, the annual use of biogas will reach 19 billion cubic metres, the use of non-food grain fuel bio-ethanol will be 2 million tons, and the annual use of bio-diesel will reach 200,000 tons.

By 2020, the annual use of biomass pellets as fuel will reach 50 million tons, the annual use of biogas will reach 44 billion cubic metres, the annual use of fuel bio-ethanol will reach 10 million tons, and the annual use of bio-diesel will reach 2 million tons.

In rural areas, the main emphasis will be put on household biogas digesters in small and medium sized towns, as well as livestock farms, and in cases of industrial organic effluent, larger scale biogas projects will supply gas in a more concentrated fashion. By 2010, about 40 million rural households will use biogas as their main fuel, while by 2020, 80 million households will do so.

By 2010, the installed grid connected wind capacity will be 5 GW. About thirty 100 MW- scale wind farms will be established, mainly in the eastern coastal areas and ‘Sanbei Region” (“Three Norths Region”), thereby building up of three 1 GW-scale wind farm bases in Jiangsu, Hebei and Inner Mongolia, respectively. In addition, one or two 100 MW-scale pilot offshore wind projects will be established.

By 2020, the installed grid connected wind capacity will be 30 GW. Rich wind energy resources in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Jilin will be developed, establishing a backbone of major wind provinces, each with over 2 GW of capacity installed.

Six wind farm bases (Dabancheng in Xinjiang, Yumen in Gansu, the eastern coastal area around Jiangsu and Dhanghai, Huitengxile in Inner Mongolia, Zhangbei region of Hebei, and Baicheng in Jilin will be developed each with GW-level installed capacity. 1 GW offshore wind capacity will also be installed.

Over recent years, China has become the world’s third largest producer of solar PV (photovoltaics) after Japan and Germany, but until recently installed capacity in China itself was quite modest. This trend is being reversed. According to solarbuzz.com, the world solar pv market rose 62 per cent in 2007 to reach a new record of 2,826 MW of installed solar panels. Germany is world leader in installed solar capacity followed by Spain.

By 2010, the total capacity of solar PV power in China will be 300 MW, and this will rise to 1.8 GW by 2020. This total includes about 100 MW of solar PV to be installed to 1 million rural households.

China will aim to build large solar PV and solar thermal power stations. By 2010, the grid connected capacity will be 20 MW solar PV and 50 MW solar thermal. In 2020, this is expected to rise to 200 MW for grid connected solar PV power and 200 MW for solar thermal stations. In addition, there is a large potential for solar PV application in communications, meteorology, long distance pipelines, railways, highways etc. The application of solar PV technologies in these commercial areas will be 30 MW by 2010 and 100 MW by 2020.

China will actively promote the development of geothermal and tidal energies. In the regions of the Yangtze River and in coastal areas, geothermal technology will be used for space heating, air conditioning, and hot water supply. The target of annual geothermal energy utilization will be 4 million tce by 2010 and 12 million tce by 2020. The total capacity of tidal power generation will be 100 MW by 2020.

Hydropower, the other renewable energy has an economic potential capacity of 400 GW, with an annual power generation potential of 1750 TWh. These are distributed mainly in China’s western provinces, with 70 per cent located in the south west.

The devastating earthquake in Sichuan province has had a major impact on China’s natural gas production, as well as severely affecting the hydro power resources of the region. 27 power stations have been shut down, and 391 dams badly damaged. The Water Resources Ministry has pointed to major safety issues with reservoirs, hydro stations and lakes. 37,000 of China’s 87,000 dams are believed to be in a dangerous state.

renewable energies, global warming, carbon abatement, greenhouse gas, emissions trading

Posted under Carbon Abatement Scheme, Global Warming, Renewable Energies, World Inflation